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Ice Conditions 2008-09
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mikewhite
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:59 am    Post subject: Ice Conditions 2008-09 Reply with quote

On this last day of 2008 it is calm enough to get a few pictures across the South Channel. As you can see, it may be another rough ride this year, if this ice stays.

http://www.bois-blanc.com/phpBB2/album_page.php?pic_id=2439

http://www.bois-blanc.com/phpBB2/album_page.php?pic_id=2440

I wish everyone good luck and good health in 2009.
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veva
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 11:08 am    Post subject: Ice conditions Reply with quote

Hey Mike How do I get to the photos? Thanks for keeping us informed. Veva
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mikewhite
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 01, 2009 10:05 am    Post subject: How? Reply with quote

My head hurts this morning. It may be that you looked while I was in the middle of adding links to my message.
You should be able to click on the green links in my original message now. Or go to the Album, scroll down and they should show as recent pictures. Or in Album click on the top most catagory.

If that isn't working for you, then something is wrong somewhere.

The open water in the pictures is pretty well frozen over this first day of 2009. It was in the single digits last night.
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veva
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:04 pm    Post subject: ice conditions Reply with quote

Thanks MIKE

Thats just what happend. Ihit right in between
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theeislandgirl
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 4:09 pm    Post subject: r Reply with quote

Great pictures mike

thanks for sharing the winter season on the island
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mikewhite
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:28 am    Post subject: Jan 6 Reply with quote

Jan 6 - Since I posted the pictures, the center of the channel was swept clean. Then the winds came and the ice came cramming back in. This morning it was zero degrees and no wind. I can see that the ice is getting closer to frozen over. Then I noticed this big ship coming from the west braking the ice up all the way down through the channel. Poop.
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theeislandgirl
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:52 pm    Post subject: yup Reply with quote

Hey Mike

Yeah I remember those big boats killing our ice bridge .. Mad

Oh by the way, you mentioned a head ache earlier .... humm did some celebrating New Years Eve ???
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Charlie Trie
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Per Cheboygan Tribune, the channel remains officially open however the Mackinaw specifically went north of BBI to avoid ice disruption on its way to Green Bay.
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mikewhite
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 10, 2009 9:29 am    Post subject: ice Reply with quote

It's the 10th. It was zero out this morning. The Michigan broke up the ice on the 6th. That may have been a good thing, because a lot of the rough stuff in the middle of the channel is gone.

The word is that the Coast Gaurd now determines when the channel will be closed. They must announce it by radio to the ships for three days in advance of the closing date. They, as far as I know, have not made up their minds yet.

The smooth stuff in the center is almost skimmed over. I hope it holds together during the next little storm, before the arctic chill arrives next week.
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mikewhite
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 11, 2009 5:51 pm    Post subject: Ice Reply with quote

The 11th. The skim ice has thickened some and I can see no open water.
A blow is coming just prior to the arctic cold, and I hope that the ice has thickened enough to withstand it.

If it holds, we will have an ice bridge by next weekend.
If the blow breaks it up, we may have an awful mess.
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susan mccoy
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 11, 2009 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Happy New Year to my island friends. Mike, how deep is the snow on the island? susan mccoy

And, why do I have to be "Black Fly Bait" ?
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mikewhite
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 8:14 am    Post subject: hi Reply with quote

Hi Susan,
You are black fly bait because you are new to the site. After you post a while you will get promoted. I don't know how many times. Have you checked out the flowers on here. I posted quite a few. They are under Album - Bob-Lo Wildflowers.

The snow is maybe a bit over a foot. It is settled into a nice base. Snowmobiling is good.
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Familyman
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good news. Had to share.


Global Warming Update: 'Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age'
By Noel Sheppard (Bio | Archive)
January 11, 2009 - 11:57 ET

"The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science."
Additionally, the entire bogus manmade global warming theory that climate alarmists and their surrogates have been forcing down the throats of the citizenry "is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change."
The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

Sounds much like what the realist side has been saying for years, doesn't it? But it gets better:

During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other scientists began promoting the theory that ‘greenhouse gasses’ such as carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of ‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) has gradually become accepted as fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.

The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.” The ‘hockey stick’ graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.

The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.

Sounds exactly like what the realists claim, and have been claiming, correct? But there's more:

The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose [sic] their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s oceans.

The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the same levels which they are at today.

The conclusion:

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.
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Ron Petersen
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Too late again - I was just going to say that Rolling Eyes
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doug miller
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am a global warming agnostic but look forward to reviewing the evidence as it comes in.

I will say that, after the cold, wintry weather that much of the country has experienced since November, and especially if the upcoming week is anything like what they have predicted (some have predicted temps to drop to levels we have not seen in 15 or 20 years), a lot of global warming agnostics may get off the fence on the global cooling side. Or maybe they will simply decide that global warming is better than the alternative.

Seriously, I can imagine that the journalists won't be writing about global warming nearly as much if, anecdotally, it does not appear that the earth is warming up. And that will lead the populace to think that it is not a real problem.
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michaelc007
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 5:41 pm    Post subject: Hi all! : ) Reply with quote

Any predictions Mike, on when we'll have safe ice? I know the're forecasting a frigid week.
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Rich
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Familyman, have you heard if the polar ice caps are rebuilding over the last 2 years? Watching time lapse photos of them disappearing was a little alarming.

Of course any way you look at it I'm sure we all agree that air pollution is not a good thing.
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mikewhite
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 7:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really don't care if it is getting warmer or colder. I don't really care how that is happening.

What I do care about is the stark fact, that if you burn it, kill it, use it, till it is gone forever, that is bad.

Trees, if they are not totally gone, can be renewed. Oil, once it is gone, will be gone forever. The world is having a grand party right now, but future generations will suffer for our waste.

Getting back to the subject of ice. The wind was not as bad as predicted. I need to check, but from my place it looks like the new ice held. With this cold weather (it was -10 this morning), it will be thickening. I might go and check it later today.
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flymom
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For anyone interested, here's a great place to look at the daily satellite photos of the Island and the ice forming - ASSUMING there is a clear day! I wouldn't make any travel plans based on these photos, but it is fun for us who aren't there to watch.

http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/region_map.html

Select Lake Huron, and then you'll get several pages of small thumbnails by date. Click on the photo, and you'll get great detail. 1/08 has a couple of good/clear shots. Maybe more from today - I see it is predicted to be clear again. Enjoy
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Islander
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you Flymom for sharing site..................very interesting.
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mikewhite
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 1:35 pm    Post subject: Channel Closing Reply with quote

Rumer control has it that the channel was closed to shipping yesterday.

Paul Stewart and I went out about one third of the way across, and found the minimum thickness on the newly formed ice to be 5 inches thick. I put a spade bit in my cordless drill that was that length. It would just make it though in a few places. Measured with a tape to make sure. Planted my old Christmas tree at the point where we turned around.

We have an ice bridge!
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theeislandgirl
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 3:47 pm    Post subject: ice Reply with quote

flymom
the site is pretty neat thanks

good deal got crossing hope its lasts a long time
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John Elmer Engel
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:53 pm    Post subject: Ice Bridge Reply with quote

Is it true that the Cheboygan Police Dept. hands out fliers to the locals warning them of the invasion of BBI residents swarming into town for some social interaction???

Wish I was with y'all.
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mikewhite
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 7:08 pm    Post subject: First Reply with quote

The first one to cross all the way on the treeline, before it was even completely installed, was Stuart Riker.

The thinnest ice was 6" measured with a tape measure, no guessing. So, it gained in thickness overnight by 1".

The temp. this morning at my place was a negative 12 degrees. Tonight is supposed to be right down there again.
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doug miller
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just curious, Mike. What do you consider a safe thickness for walking across and what is necessary for a snowmobile to cross? Thanks.
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